At the end of last season, all indications were that California packers would need fewer tomatoes in 2012. It appeared that although demand was strong, stocks were very high so processors would want to balance supply by packing fewer tomatoes.
Global tomato production is fore‐ cast to shrink nearly 2.2 million metric tons (MT) below last year’s actual output, according to the April report released by the World Processing Tomato Council. The forecast of 35.43 million MT represents a 5.8% decline from 2011.
California growers plan to de‐ liver 12.7 million tons of processing tomatoes this summer. Growers contracted for 266,000 acres and expect yields of 47.7 tons per acre, according to the USDA’s California Processing Tomato Report.
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World numbers are nearly the same as last year at 37.185 million metric tons (MT), according to the World Processing Tomato Council. Overall the crop met expectations and put up essentially the same volume as last year. Still the volume was 4% less than the 3 year average.
At 11.94 million tons, California’s processed tomato crop missed preseason expectations by 2.13%. A cool, wet spring delayed the harvest two weeks and a heavy, early season rain cut the season short, causing the crop to miss its preseason fore‐ cast of 12.2 million tons.
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In the United States, many sales of bulk tomato paste are done under cost‐based contracts. Those costs have gone up because the price of raw tomatoes increased $3 over last year to $68 per ton. (Please see our April 2011 Newsletter for additional details.)
The world expects to decrease processed tomato production only slightly in 2011, according to the World Processing Tomato Council’s (WPTC) June forecast. At 37.232 million metric tons (MT), expectations are 0.4% below the 2010 crop and 4% lower than the three‐year average.
The famous, nurturing California sun has been shy this growing season. Instead, rain and snow storms replenished water supplies and pulled California out of its multi‐year drought.
After packing a record 42.5 million metric ton crop in 2009, global forecasts are 7.8% less for 2010. The World Processing Tomato Council expects the 2010 crop to be about 39.2 million MT, which is still 4% above the three year average.
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It’s impossible to say what the market price is for bulk tomato paste. There is no exchange or independent pricing mechanism to indicate the price. Bulk tomato products are mostly sold under long-term contracts, with prices linked to processing costs. Those costs are going up.
According to the World Processing Tomato Council’s April forecast, the world will produce 38.2 million metric tons (42.1 million short tons) and a 2.3% increase over last year’s crop.
