TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – September 2024 Release

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Revised Estimates: What the Latest NASS Data Means for California Tomatoes.

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. This edition covers the USDA NASS report, which revises California's processing tomato estimate to 11.3 million paid short tons, down from 11.6 million. Key points include projected field yields, acreage changes, and the impact of the July heatwave on quality.

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Morning Star Newsletter now distributed electronically

As a reminder, Morning Star is now distributing our newsletters electronically using an email distribution vendor called Mailchimp. Your e-version will now include informative Morning Star videos and highlights. Depending on your company's firewall, these emails may initially be directed to you spam folder.

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2024 SEASON CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURE UPDATE

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Looking Ahead: Key Considerations for California Growers in 2025

As we transition into Fall, growers are already looking ahead to 2025 with a range of considerations. They are evaluating prices, demand for their commodities, borrowing interest rates, financing, labor, weather, and water resources, alongside their usual business concerns.

Commodity prices and demand are closely linked. While there are no major shortages in California-grown crops that might drive up prices, we have seen a recent increase in corn silage prices. This is due to a reduced planting of silage this year, lower forecasted prices, high temperatures impacting yield, and dairy customers' concerns as we approach a potentially drier 2025. Additionally, milk and nut prices have improved. Meanwhile, most other California crops prices remain under pressure.

Although there is some optimism about falling borrowing rates, they remain about 4% higher than what growers have previously paid. This increase in borrowing costs represents a significant expense compared to prior years.

Securing financing is another challenge. With falling commodity prices, land values have also decreased. Land in critically over drafted groundwater basins affected by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) face pumping restrictions, potentially limiting crop production and affecting returns. Consequently, lending institutions may require growers to contribute more to their financing, reducing available operating capital.

Labor costs are also on the rise, especially following the recent legislation raising fast food workers' wages to $20 per hour. Attracting skilled agricultural labor remains a challenge amidst competitive pay rates.

Despite these challenges, California growers continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience. They are known for their innovative and adaptive solutions, as well as their dedication to meeting demand and providing high-quality crops.

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TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – August 2024 Release

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California's 2024 Crop Season: Navigating Heatwaves

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. California is experiencing an intense start to the 2024 processing season, with two consecutive heatwaves in July. The state's diverse microclimates present unique challenges and opportunities for crop growth. These heatwaves have accelerated fruit maturation for early harvests, but also pose risks to later crops. The impact on yields and quality remains to be seen, but California's robust 2023 performance and solid water reserves offer a measure of stability amidst these climatic challenges.

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2024 PRE SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Resilience and Adaptation: Collaborative Efforts Secure Tomato Supply in California

Tomato planting in California for the 2024 season is nearing completion. Despite mild interruptions due to weather, most tomato growers have managed to plant fairly close to schedule. It has been fortunate for California tomato growers to not have to worry about severe weather conditions this planting season because there are other areas that require their focus.

FIGURE 1 - Sugar Beet Leafhopper

A new rule banning the application of neonicotinoids on flowering plants went into effect this year, affecting processing tomatoes among other crops. Traditionally, a significant portion of tomato growers in the southern region of the state, who have experienced curly top damage from sugar beet leafhoppers in the past, or have heard about their neighbors experiencing damage, have used an insecticide in the greenhouse prior to transplanting to protect the young plants from leafhoppers. The leafhoppers are vectors for the curly top virus, which kills the plant (See Figure 1).

Kern County, one of the southernmost growing counties in California, proclaimed a local emergency in early April to protect their 8,000 to 10,000 acres of processing tomatoes by allowing the application of neonicotinoid pesticide if the leafhoppers in that area posed a serious threat. Northern counties with past leafhopper issues followed suit and have declared or are in the process of declaring emergencies, although the rains in the hills resulted in good annual grass growth, which helped to minimize the growth of leafhopper host plants.

News headlines announcing the emergency declaration and use of neonicotinoids caused concerns for some customers over potential supply reliability. However, the emergency declaration is a precautionary safety measure.

FIGURE 2: Branched Broomrape Weed

Another top priority for growers in California as we head into the summer months is the reemergence of the very evasive branched broomrape weed, a parasitic plant that attaches to the plant root below ground (See Figure 2) and can spread with exponential growth. In response to a severe infestation in the Sacramento Valley in the late 1950s, an industry-led effort funded through a marketing order program, which included fumigation, helped remedy the problem along with intensive surveys. With the weed’s reemergence, research has been ongoing both in California and other countries for treatment and eradication. Secretary of Agriculture Karen Ross has appointed a committee, and the first organizational meeting was held in mid-May. This committee is tasked with forming a strategic plan on how to cope with broomrape, minimize its growth, and/or eliminate this weed in California.

Morning Star is very active in the prevention and control of these invasive species. However, it should be noted that the issues discussed are currently isolated to particular regions. This is one of the many reasons Morning Star maintains a large, geographically diverse sourcing region. Should an incident occur in one growing region, we can still acquire raw products from the majority of other growing regions, which helps mitigate a catastrophic supply issue.

While growing tomatoes in California can’t be described as a profession without worries, the forethought and actions exhibited through the collaboration of growers and industry allies bring confidence that the tomato supply in California will be sufficient to meet the needs of its customers.

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Damaged plant as a result of the curly top virus.

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Branched broomrape weed in a tomato field.

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2023 POST SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Navigating California’s 2024 Tomato Crop with Caution and Optimism

Processing tomato crops flourished this season thanks to California's exceptional summer and fall growing conditions. Inventory levels have been buffered, and a respectable carryover stock is anticipated for 2024. However, the sunny skies and minimal to no rainfall that facilitated processing until early November have extended into December. While the dry conditions allowed for successful fall ground preparation, California growers, with the holidays approaching, are hopeful for abundant rainfall and snow.

With carryover stocks back in balance, the urgent need to begin transplanting as soon as possible has finally eased. Waiting until late February or early March will provide optimal conditions for the young plants emerging from the greenhouses.

Click to access the CA Department of Water Resources Map

Currently, California's northern and central reservoirs are at around 120% of historical levels and are at approximately 65% of capacity. While this is a positive starting point for 2024, initial California State Water Project (SWP) allocations, as of December 1, stand at only 10% due to minimal precipitation. The Central Valley Project’s (CVP) water allocations are still pending. As the days pass, California's growers eagerly await the anticipated El Niño conditions promising another wet winter.

A primary concern for California's growers is the 2024 tomato contracts. After wrapping up the 2023 crop year with 12.738 million short tons, California's processors are looking towards 2024 with plans for a slightly lower tonnage, yet focusing on keeping factory run rates efficiently high. This presents a challenging situation for the state's growers since many crops in competition with tomatoes, as well as most permanent crops, have faced depressed prices and demand, contributing to a growing interest in tomato contracts despite reduced pricing.

Additional reasons for gratitude and optimism include the minimal damage tomato crops experienced in 2023 from the curly top virus. The Beet Curly Top Virus program has enhanced its state scouting capabilities and research. The wet conditions during the 2023 grower season played a crucial role in minimizing damage from the virus. Furthermore, advancements in tomato genetics continue to improve varieties, resulting in optimal tomatoes for growing and processing with enhanced disease resistance.

A new state-sponsored agency will become active after the first of the year, addressing the broomrape situation in parts of Northern California. This agency will be tasked with forming a strategic plan and mission on how to deal with this menacing parasitic weed. Other countries have taken a strong proactive approach to preventing its spread and have seen great results.

As California's tomato industry navigates the challenges of fluctuating water allocations and reduced contract intentions, the state's growers and processors remain cautiously optimistic. With promising reservoir levels, the industry is poised for success in 2024, provided the anticipated El Niño conditions bring the much-needed rainfall for a prosperous growing season ahead.

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2023 SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Fruit Fly Fears and Tomato Triumphs: 2023 Crop Reflections

As the season approaches its final stretch, it is an opportune moment to reflect on what has been beneficial for the 2023 California tomato crop and what concerns we should carry forward into next year.

At the top of the list is the precipitation and snowfall that California received during the winter. Our reservoirs were replenished well above historical averages, and the rainfall played a vital role in leaching salts from the soils, which had accumulated during the previous drought years, particularly on lands irrigated with saline groundwater. This abundant water supply eased the pressure on groundwater pumping and allowed for the replenishment of water levels in some groundwater basins.

FIGURE A: Click to View Live Image

Currently, most reservoirs are significantly above historical averages (Figure A ), instilling optimism among farmers regarding the water supply for the 2024 season. Moreover, alongside the healthy carryover water supply in the reservoirs, some farmers were able to bank water for future use. Conditions are favoring an El Niño season through the spring of next year. El Niño, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, can have far-reaching effects on global weather patterns. While increased precipitation is typically associated with an El Niño year, California's winter patterns are less predictable, and a robust El Niño is required to bring more storms. While this precipitation is beneficial for the water supply, it may lead to interruptions and delays in spring tillage and planting, similar to what we experienced in 2023.

The 2023 California tomato crop was fortunate to be spared from the curly top virus. Leafhopper counts, which are vectors for the disease, were significantly lower compared to previous years, as reported by the Beet Curly Top Virus Control (BCTVC) program. BCTVC had enhanced its scouting efforts after observing increased counts in both the northern and southern growing regions during the 2022 season.

FIGURE B | Photo by Severyn Korneyev

A new insect of concern is the fruit fly, with multiple species now detected in California. The Tau fruit fly (Figure B) was found in the Santa Clarita area, north of Los Angeles, and other species, including the Oriental fruit fly, have been discovered in various counties. The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) is closely monitoring these fruit flies to prevent their spread and is imposing quarantines as needed. There is a theory that the rise of E-Commerce may be linked to the spread of the fruit fly in California.

While dealing with the presence of fruit flies, the CDFA is also taking proactive measures to prevent the introduction of Tuta Absoluta, also known as the Tomato Leafminer. This destructive pest is well-established in Europe and other tomato-producing regions, and it appears only a matter of time until it is found in California. CDFA's proactive stance is encouraging and offers optimism for the California tomato industry.

Morning Star continues to advance its tomato variety program and collaborates closely with tomato breeders. The goal is to develop high yielding varieties with disease and pest resistance for its growers, as well as varieties with optimal growing characteristics for greenhouse production. Additionally, the company focuses on processing characteristics that are efficient in both the factory and for ingredient customers. This feedback loop, spanning from seed to finished product, creates a platform for all parties associated with Morning Star to maximize their efficiencies.

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2023 PRE-SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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California Navigates Unpredictable Weather Patterns

California's tomato growers and processors are once again navigating the unpredictable weather patterns of the state. Despite the much-needed rainfall this year, which filled reservoirs (Exhibit A) and provided water allocations at 100%, the industry is facing several challenges. Late rains, gusty winds, and above-average temperatures in the spring have resulted in a delayed and erratic planting season, leading to later-than-normal factory starting dates and reduced early-season volumes. Moreover, the harvest window will extend further into October than usual, potentially lowering the average tons per acre for the 2023 season.

Exhibit A - Click to Expand | Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources

While the rain has brought its share of difficulties, there have also been positive outcomes. The ample water supply has leached salts that have accumulated in the soil over the years, providing a healthier environment for plant growth. This is especially beneficial in areas where well water with higher than desirable salt levels is used. Additionally, the heavy rainfall has created thick vegetation in the foothills that limits the ideal conditions for the development of Beet Leafhopper populations, which carry the Curly Top Virus. This has provided a respite to growers who faced severe damage from the virus in previous years.

Despite the growers' eagerness to catch up with schedules, planting on overly wet soil can lead to soil compaction, which, in turn, can cause plant roots to exert more force than growing in well-tilled soil. This can reduce access to soil water and nutrients, causing plants in compacted soil to be more susceptible to stress from drought, heat, or heavy fruit load. (Exhibit B)

Exhibit B

Furthermore, growers must carefully manage nitrogen levels during a wet spring. Soil nitrate tests can be used to create a nitrogen budget and make up for the nitrogen that may have been leached to achieve proper levels required to support desired crop yield. Leaf analysis during the season can also be used to check and adjust nitrogen rates.

Despite the challenges presented by the weather, Morning Star field and services staff have worked closely and collaborated with growers to provide the best possible solutions. Morning Star’s wide geographical diversity of planting areas throughout the state creates more opportunities to assist growers during these challenging times and still achieve desired processing tons.

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2022 POST SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Challenges and Reasons for Optimism as 2022 Winds Down

Another year is almost behind us – another year with California falling short of its forecasted crop. As we approach Thanksgiving, is there anything about which the processing tomato industry can be thankful or optimistic? We think there are a few things worth considering.

California Nevada River Forecast Center 6 Day Forecast Precipitation Map

FIGURE A | Source: California Nevada River Forecast Center

While everyone knows there has been a drought in California and that the state is expected to face another La Niña influence for 2023, two of California’s major reservoirs are in better shape now than they were at this time in 2021. Shasta reservoir in the north part of the state is at 58% of its historical average versus 42% last year, while the San Luis reservoir in the central part of the state is at 52% of its historical average versus 37% in 2021. The short-term precipitation forecast in California is also promising, as shown in Figure A, with a good portion of the state expected to receive one to six inches of rainfall.

The curly top virus resurfaced in 2022, with devastating impact on processing tomato crops in some areas. The Beet Curly Top Virus Control Board responded at its last meeting by approving a motion to request that the California Department of Food and Agriculture add personnel for statewide surveying and monitoring of increased presence in new, non-traditional areas. In a promising technology-based initiative, a new app in development will allow the industry’s growers and pest control advisors to collect, record, and submit data directly to the Beet Curly Top Virus Control Program. Also formed, with participation from Morning Star, is a new Diagnostics Subcommittee that will investigate the Program’s top-priority issues.

Technology is also being leveraged to drive progress in tomato crop management through such strategies as improved irrigation management, laser weed control, and improved fertilization programs to maximize yields.

While many commodities continue to compete for acres cultivated, tomatoes grown with drip irrigation remain one of the top commodities for value relative to water use amid speculation on 2023 tomato prices. While processing tomatoes may seem more challenging to grow than other crops, Morning Star continues to lower barriers to entry by providing grower services that reduce capital requirements and support profitable production.

Growing processing tomatoes in California can be challenging, but strategic industry support and advances in technology will help protect their leadership position in the state’s production mix.

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2022 SUMMER CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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California tomato processors and growers battle extreme drought conditions and Curly Top Virus

Processing for the 2022 tomato crop has begun and the fourth week of harvest has been completed. The 2022 harvest is currently behind the 2021 harvest by a little over four hundred thousand tons. The last USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NAAS) intentions report showed an estimated 11.7 million tons were expected for California in 2022. As the California 2022 crop trails 2021, what conditions is the crop facing?

FIGURE 1 | Source: National Integrated Drought Information System

Most of the growing regions of California are still classified as being under extreme and exceptional drought. (See Figure 1) These conditions translate to lack of water and salt levels in soils higher than normal because water is not available to leach the salts below the root zone. Irrigation with ground water wells, with elevated salt levels, also contributes to the problem. These conditions negatively impact yields.

California reservoir levels continue to be below historical averages with the exception of one reservoir in Northern California, New Bullards Bar. (See Figure 2) These are bad conditions for 2022, but also create a situation for 2023, with rain and snow critically needed for the state.

On a positive note for water, pumping from both the Jones (Central Valley Project) and Banks (State Water Project) have been occurring, bringing some much-needed water, although small amounts, to areas south of the San Joaquin Delta. (See Figure 3)

There has been an increase of the Curly Top Virus in California, appearing in some non-traditional locations. The damage comes from the virus that the sugar beet leafhopper carries with it, not damage from the sugar beet leafhopper itself. In the past, most damage has occurred when the vegetation dries up in the foothills and the leafhoppers migrate to the valley. For 2022 the damage has been occurring well past the time of the vegetation drying down and still persists to high degrees, especially in areas where some fields were completely lost. A Special Meeting has been called by the Beet Curly Top Virus Control Board to address this matter on August 11.

There has also been a fair amount of spotted wilt observed in the crop. Spotted wilt is transmitted by thrips. While spotted wilt resistance has been bred into certain varieties, there is a new strain that has broken through. Increased planting of almond trees contributes to the increase in thrip populations, because thrips are welcomed in almond plantings to slow down the mite pressure. As cropping patterns change in California, so must the strategy for pest control.

California processing tomato growers have proven that they can survive challenges and will be tested once again for the 2022 season.

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FIGURE 2 | Source: California Dept. of Water Resources. | Click image to open live link.

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FIGURE 3 | Source: The Water Agency, Inc.

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2022 CALIFORNIA PRE SEASON TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Water and Weather Outlook Signal Unprecedented Challenges

Processing tomato growers in California might compare 2022 weather so far to a roller coaster, but with none of the accompanying amusement. Promising rainfall in late 2021 brought encouragement to the industry, only to evaporate quickly. As reported by California Secretary of Natural Resources Wade Crowfoot, the first three months of 2022 were the driest in the state’s history. As a result, officials from the State Water Project announced a 15% allocation in January based on supply and projections, only to cut that allocation to 5% by mid-March. And the Central Valley Project south of the Delta will again receive a zero allocation, impacting a vast proportion of acreage in Fresno County – California’s largest processing tomato growing county.

As depicted in Figures 1 and 2 below, drought engulfs the state, driving all reservoirs below historical levels. Shasta, currently at about 50% of 2021 levels, has tremendous impact on the state’s water supply, prompting Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (SRSCs) to reduce water supplied to growers by 75% or more. This is uncharted territory, never imposed since SRSC formation. Many northern acres and multiple crops will have to be fallowed, impacting agriculture, the environment for migratory birds, and people’s livelihoods.

U.S. CA Drought Monitor as of May 17 2022

FIGURE 1 | Source: National Drought Mitigation Center

FIGURE 2 | Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources

Likewise, the Exchange Contractors in the Central Valley are facing supply restrictions and reducing allocations to growers, while adjusting these allocations month to month. Water historically supplied from the Delta under the Exchange Contract may again need to be supplied from the Friant system.

This surface water shortage coincides with early implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, through which agencies have submitted and received feedback to plans from the Department of Water Resources. With these plans to protect groundwater levels, Governor Newsom signed N-7-22 to help mitigate the state’s protracted drought. Well permits have been halted under N-7-22, creating confusion as drilling regulations for each defined region were already addressed in the Sustainable Groundwater Management Plans.

CA Northern Sierra Precipitation: 8-Station Index May 24 2022

Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources

Combined with water shortages, farmers have been faced with fluctuating temperatures and gusty wind conditions that made transplanting young plants difficult. Some fields planted in mid-February were lost to frost in the southern part of the valley. Following record temperatures in the 90’s in March, isolated fields in both northern and southern growing areas were hit with frost, creating minor losses in early April.

Despite far-from-desirable weather conditions, the common theme is that the resiliency of California tomato growers will rise to the top. But complicating the matter are supply chain challenges and increasing costs. With other crops now becoming more attractive in the competition for water, the industry will have to wait until the end of May, when processor intentions are updated for the NASS reports, to see if processing tomatoes have made the cut.

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