2024 SUMMER-FALL CALIFORNIA WATER CONDITIONS

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A Year of Water Highs and Lows: California’s 2024 Reservoir Levels and Anticipated La Niña Effects

In 2024, California's weather has presented us with a mixed bag of challenges and triumphs. Winter temperatures and precipitation were slightly above average, but saw mild interruptions in transplanting, while July brought about extreme temperatures—over 100 degrees for more than 50 days in the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys. On a positive note, August saw a further increase in the California State Water Project (SWP) water supply allocation, now up to 40%.

Jones (CVP) Pumping Station

California's major reservoirs (See Figure 1) have seen a significant boost. Currently, their levels range from 95% to 139% of the historical average, which is a testament to the effective management and resilience of our water systems. The State and Federal pumping from the Banks (SWP) and Jones (CVP) pumping stations have been operating near their full capacity, contributing to a restoration of the San Luis Reservoir to 120% of historical values. With a current combined storage of 941,596 Acre Feet, and the Central Valley Project Share at 416,200 Acre Feet, the San Luis Reservoir is well-positioned to support critical agricultural needs, including those of Westland’s Water District, which serves Fresno County—the leading processing tomato growing region in the state.

Looking ahead, however, there are concerns to be mindful of. Forecasts indicate a 66% chance of La Niña conditions developing from September through November, potentially extending into the winter of 2024/2025. La Niña typically brings drier weather patterns to California, which could impact water availability and agricultural productivity. Additionally, California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) restrictions are likely to influence how growers manage their resources and adapt to changing conditions.

Despite these challenges, the tenacity of California growers remains unwavering. Our community has consistently demonstrated its ability to overcome adversity through innovative solutions and determined efforts.

Morning Star will continue to develop our understanding of the future water availability in California and evolve our tomato acquisition strategy to better ensure a sustainable future.

Figure 1 - Source: California Department of Water Resources

PDF Link: CA Res Chart_Sept 8

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SPRING WATER CONDITIONS IN CALIFORNIA

Navigating California's Water Landscape: Rainfall, Reservoirs, and Allocations

California has received a substantial amount of rainfall, with 96% of the average in the northern watershed and 88% in the San Joaquin watershed for the 2024 crop year. The reservoirs in northern California are currently at 117% of the historical average, and the central reservoirs are at an impressive 120% of the average (see Figure 1). Despite these favorable conditions, the federal water allocation south of the Delta is only at 40%, as is the state allocation. While there will be ample water to support the NASS January intentions forecast of 232 thousand acres for California processing tomatoes, this situation leaves farmers in these state and federal project zones wondering what it takes to secure a more favorable allocation.

Since October 2023, approximately 16.5 million gallons have flowed through the Delta. However, only about 2 million gallons have been pumped south for use by state and federal projects, with pumping curtailed due to environmental restrictions.

On a positive note, the Department of Water Resources has released a report indicating an increase in groundwater storage for the first time since 2019. For the 2023 water year, this improvement is partly due to managed groundwater recharge and reduced pumping. This milestone coincides with the first time the groundwater sustainability plan Annual Report data was released by local groundwater sustainability agencies across 99 groundwater basins, accounting for 90% of groundwater use in the state. This reporting stems from the historic Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), established in 2014 to protect California's invaluable groundwater resources.

Morning Star's proactive approach to understanding future water availability in California has evolved our tomato acquisition strategy. As the landscape of water resources shifts, driven by evolving urban needs, environmental concerns, and industrial demands, we are strategically positioning ourselves to thrive amidst these changes. Our commitment is to source from regions with assured water quality and supply not just today, but also in the years to come.

FIGURE 1 | Source: CA Department of Water Resources

PDF Link: CA Res Chart_May 22

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Morning Star Newsletter now distributed electronically

2023 POST SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

Navigating California’s 2024 Tomato Crop with Caution and Optimism

Processing tomato crops flourished this season thanks to California's exceptional summer and fall growing conditions. Inventory levels have been buffered, and a respectable carryover stock is anticipated for 2024. However, the sunny skies and minimal to no rainfall that facilitated processing until early November have extended into December. While the dry conditions allowed for successful fall ground preparation, California growers, with the holidays approaching, are hopeful for abundant rainfall and snow.

With carryover stocks back in balance, the urgent need to begin transplanting as soon as possible has finally eased. Waiting until late February or early March will provide optimal conditions for the young plants emerging from the greenhouses.

Click to access the CA Department of Water Resources Map

Currently, California's northern and central reservoirs are at around 120% of historical levels and are at approximately 65% of capacity. While this is a positive starting point for 2024, initial California State Water Project (SWP) allocations, as of December 1, stand at only 10% due to minimal precipitation. The Central Valley Project’s (CVP) water allocations are still pending. As the days pass, California's growers eagerly await the anticipated El Niño conditions promising another wet winter.

A primary concern for California's growers is the 2024 tomato contracts. After wrapping up the 2023 crop year with 12.738 million short tons, California's processors are looking towards 2024 with plans for a slightly lower tonnage, yet focusing on keeping factory run rates efficiently high. This presents a challenging situation for the state's growers since many crops in competition with tomatoes, as well as most permanent crops, have faced depressed prices and demand, contributing to a growing interest in tomato contracts despite reduced pricing.

Additional reasons for gratitude and optimism include the minimal damage tomato crops experienced in 2023 from the curly top virus. The Beet Curly Top Virus program has enhanced its state scouting capabilities and research. The wet conditions during the 2023 grower season played a crucial role in minimizing damage from the virus. Furthermore, advancements in tomato genetics continue to improve varieties, resulting in optimal tomatoes for growing and processing with enhanced disease resistance.

A new state-sponsored agency will become active after the first of the year, addressing the broomrape situation in parts of Northern California. This agency will be tasked with forming a strategic plan and mission on how to deal with this menacing parasitic weed. Other countries have taken a strong proactive approach to preventing its spread and have seen great results.

As California's tomato industry navigates the challenges of fluctuating water allocations and reduced contract intentions, the state's growers and processors remain cautiously optimistic. With promising reservoir levels, the industry is poised for success in 2024, provided the anticipated El Niño conditions bring the much-needed rainfall for a prosperous growing season ahead.

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2023 SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

Fruit Fly Fears and Tomato Triumphs: 2023 Crop Reflections

As the season approaches its final stretch, it is an opportune moment to reflect on what has been beneficial for the 2023 California tomato crop and what concerns we should carry forward into next year.

At the top of the list is the precipitation and snowfall that California received during the winter. Our reservoirs were replenished well above historical averages, and the rainfall played a vital role in leaching salts from the soils, which had accumulated during the previous drought years, particularly on lands irrigated with saline groundwater. This abundant water supply eased the pressure on groundwater pumping and allowed for the replenishment of water levels in some groundwater basins.

FIGURE A: Click to View Live Image

Currently, most reservoirs are significantly above historical averages (Figure A ), instilling optimism among farmers regarding the water supply for the 2024 season. Moreover, alongside the healthy carryover water supply in the reservoirs, some farmers were able to bank water for future use. Conditions are favoring an El Niño season through the spring of next year. El Niño, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, can have far-reaching effects on global weather patterns. While increased precipitation is typically associated with an El Niño year, California's winter patterns are less predictable, and a robust El Niño is required to bring more storms. While this precipitation is beneficial for the water supply, it may lead to interruptions and delays in spring tillage and planting, similar to what we experienced in 2023.

The 2023 California tomato crop was fortunate to be spared from the curly top virus. Leafhopper counts, which are vectors for the disease, were significantly lower compared to previous years, as reported by the Beet Curly Top Virus Control (BCTVC) program. BCTVC had enhanced its scouting efforts after observing increased counts in both the northern and southern growing regions during the 2022 season.

FIGURE B | Photo by Severyn Korneyev

A new insect of concern is the fruit fly, with multiple species now detected in California. The Tau fruit fly (Figure B) was found in the Santa Clarita area, north of Los Angeles, and other species, including the Oriental fruit fly, have been discovered in various counties. The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) is closely monitoring these fruit flies to prevent their spread and is imposing quarantines as needed. There is a theory that the rise of E-Commerce may be linked to the spread of the fruit fly in California.

While dealing with the presence of fruit flies, the CDFA is also taking proactive measures to prevent the introduction of Tuta Absoluta, also known as the Tomato Leafminer. This destructive pest is well-established in Europe and other tomato-producing regions, and it appears only a matter of time until it is found in California. CDFA's proactive stance is encouraging and offers optimism for the California tomato industry.

Morning Star continues to advance its tomato variety program and collaborates closely with tomato breeders. The goal is to develop high yielding varieties with disease and pest resistance for its growers, as well as varieties with optimal growing characteristics for greenhouse production. Additionally, the company focuses on processing characteristics that are efficient in both the factory and for ingredient customers. This feedback loop, spanning from seed to finished product, creates a platform for all parties associated with Morning Star to maximize their efficiencies.

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