TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – August 2024 Release

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California's 2024 Crop Season: Navigating Heatwaves

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. California is experiencing an intense start to the 2024 processing season, with two consecutive heatwaves in July. The state's diverse microclimates present unique challenges and opportunities for crop growth. These heatwaves have accelerated fruit maturation for early harvests, but also pose risks to later crops. The impact on yields and quality remains to be seen, but California's robust 2023 performance and solid water reserves offer a measure of stability amidst these climatic challenges.

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TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – June 2024 Release

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June Tomato Forecast: USDA NASS and Industry Highlights

Join Aaron Giampietro as he dives into the USDA NASS's latest processing tomato report, revealing key insights and forecast adjustments. Discover how California's farmers are boosting groundwater replenishment, the latest on contract pricing for conventional and organic tomatoes, and how shifts in energy dynamics are impacting the industry.

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TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – March 2024 Release

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Spring Planting Underway - Morning Star's Insight on Tomato Crop and Water Allocations

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. Amidst California's favorable weather and robust water storage, transplant operations are flourishing, yet state forecasted water supply allocations remain low, and crop price negotiations continue between the tomato processors and the California Tomato Growers Association. Morning Star's commitment to supply chain resilience continues to evolve to ensure stability and confidence for customers.

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2023 POST SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Navigating California’s 2024 Tomato Crop with Caution and Optimism

Processing tomato crops flourished this season thanks to California's exceptional summer and fall growing conditions. Inventory levels have been buffered, and a respectable carryover stock is anticipated for 2024. However, the sunny skies and minimal to no rainfall that facilitated processing until early November have extended into December. While the dry conditions allowed for successful fall ground preparation, California growers, with the holidays approaching, are hopeful for abundant rainfall and snow.

With carryover stocks back in balance, the urgent need to begin transplanting as soon as possible has finally eased. Waiting until late February or early March will provide optimal conditions for the young plants emerging from the greenhouses.

Click to access the CA Department of Water Resources Map

Currently, California's northern and central reservoirs are at around 120% of historical levels and are at approximately 65% of capacity. While this is a positive starting point for 2024, initial California State Water Project (SWP) allocations, as of December 1, stand at only 10% due to minimal precipitation. The Central Valley Project’s (CVP) water allocations are still pending. As the days pass, California's growers eagerly await the anticipated El Niño conditions promising another wet winter.

A primary concern for California's growers is the 2024 tomato contracts. After wrapping up the 2023 crop year with 12.738 million short tons, California's processors are looking towards 2024 with plans for a slightly lower tonnage, yet focusing on keeping factory run rates efficiently high. This presents a challenging situation for the state's growers since many crops in competition with tomatoes, as well as most permanent crops, have faced depressed prices and demand, contributing to a growing interest in tomato contracts despite reduced pricing.

Additional reasons for gratitude and optimism include the minimal damage tomato crops experienced in 2023 from the curly top virus. The Beet Curly Top Virus program has enhanced its state scouting capabilities and research. The wet conditions during the 2023 grower season played a crucial role in minimizing damage from the virus. Furthermore, advancements in tomato genetics continue to improve varieties, resulting in optimal tomatoes for growing and processing with enhanced disease resistance.

A new state-sponsored agency will become active after the first of the year, addressing the broomrape situation in parts of Northern California. This agency will be tasked with forming a strategic plan and mission on how to deal with this menacing parasitic weed. Other countries have taken a strong proactive approach to preventing its spread and have seen great results.

As California's tomato industry navigates the challenges of fluctuating water allocations and reduced contract intentions, the state's growers and processors remain cautiously optimistic. With promising reservoir levels, the industry is poised for success in 2024, provided the anticipated El Niño conditions bring the much-needed rainfall for a prosperous growing season ahead.

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2022 POST SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Challenges and Reasons for Optimism as 2022 Winds Down

Another year is almost behind us – another year with California falling short of its forecasted crop. As we approach Thanksgiving, is there anything about which the processing tomato industry can be thankful or optimistic? We think there are a few things worth considering.

California Nevada River Forecast Center 6 Day Forecast Precipitation Map

FIGURE A | Source: California Nevada River Forecast Center

While everyone knows there has been a drought in California and that the state is expected to face another La Niña influence for 2023, two of California’s major reservoirs are in better shape now than they were at this time in 2021. Shasta reservoir in the north part of the state is at 58% of its historical average versus 42% last year, while the San Luis reservoir in the central part of the state is at 52% of its historical average versus 37% in 2021. The short-term precipitation forecast in California is also promising, as shown in Figure A, with a good portion of the state expected to receive one to six inches of rainfall.

The curly top virus resurfaced in 2022, with devastating impact on processing tomato crops in some areas. The Beet Curly Top Virus Control Board responded at its last meeting by approving a motion to request that the California Department of Food and Agriculture add personnel for statewide surveying and monitoring of increased presence in new, non-traditional areas. In a promising technology-based initiative, a new app in development will allow the industry’s growers and pest control advisors to collect, record, and submit data directly to the Beet Curly Top Virus Control Program. Also formed, with participation from Morning Star, is a new Diagnostics Subcommittee that will investigate the Program’s top-priority issues.

Technology is also being leveraged to drive progress in tomato crop management through such strategies as improved irrigation management, laser weed control, and improved fertilization programs to maximize yields.

While many commodities continue to compete for acres cultivated, tomatoes grown with drip irrigation remain one of the top commodities for value relative to water use amid speculation on 2023 tomato prices. While processing tomatoes may seem more challenging to grow than other crops, Morning Star continues to lower barriers to entry by providing grower services that reduce capital requirements and support profitable production.

Growing processing tomatoes in California can be challenging, but strategic industry support and advances in technology will help protect their leadership position in the state’s production mix.

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2022 SUMMER CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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California tomato processors and growers battle extreme drought conditions and Curly Top Virus

Processing for the 2022 tomato crop has begun and the fourth week of harvest has been completed. The 2022 harvest is currently behind the 2021 harvest by a little over four hundred thousand tons. The last USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NAAS) intentions report showed an estimated 11.7 million tons were expected for California in 2022. As the California 2022 crop trails 2021, what conditions is the crop facing?

FIGURE 1 | Source: National Integrated Drought Information System

Most of the growing regions of California are still classified as being under extreme and exceptional drought. (See Figure 1) These conditions translate to lack of water and salt levels in soils higher than normal because water is not available to leach the salts below the root zone. Irrigation with ground water wells, with elevated salt levels, also contributes to the problem. These conditions negatively impact yields.

California reservoir levels continue to be below historical averages with the exception of one reservoir in Northern California, New Bullards Bar. (See Figure 2) These are bad conditions for 2022, but also create a situation for 2023, with rain and snow critically needed for the state.

On a positive note for water, pumping from both the Jones (Central Valley Project) and Banks (State Water Project) have been occurring, bringing some much-needed water, although small amounts, to areas south of the San Joaquin Delta. (See Figure 3)

There has been an increase of the Curly Top Virus in California, appearing in some non-traditional locations. The damage comes from the virus that the sugar beet leafhopper carries with it, not damage from the sugar beet leafhopper itself. In the past, most damage has occurred when the vegetation dries up in the foothills and the leafhoppers migrate to the valley. For 2022 the damage has been occurring well past the time of the vegetation drying down and still persists to high degrees, especially in areas where some fields were completely lost. A Special Meeting has been called by the Beet Curly Top Virus Control Board to address this matter on August 11.

There has also been a fair amount of spotted wilt observed in the crop. Spotted wilt is transmitted by thrips. While spotted wilt resistance has been bred into certain varieties, there is a new strain that has broken through. Increased planting of almond trees contributes to the increase in thrip populations, because thrips are welcomed in almond plantings to slow down the mite pressure. As cropping patterns change in California, so must the strategy for pest control.

California processing tomato growers have proven that they can survive challenges and will be tested once again for the 2022 season.

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FIGURE 2 | Source: California Dept. of Water Resources. | Click image to open live link.

[/fusion_text][fusion_imageframe image_id="4904|large" max_width="" sticky_max_width="" style_type="" blur="" stylecolor="" hover_type="none" bordersize="" bordercolor="" borderradius="" align_medium="none" align_small="none" align="none" lightbox="no" gallery_id="" lightbox_image="" lightbox_image_id="" alt="" link="https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain" linktarget="_blank" animation_type="" animation_direction="left" animation_speed="0.3" animation_offset="" hide_on_mobile="small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility" sticky_display="normal,sticky" class="" id="" filter_hue="0" filter_saturation="100" filter_brightness="100" filter_contrast="100" filter_invert="0" filter_sepia="0" filter_opacity="100" filter_blur="0" filter_hue_hover="0" filter_saturation_hover="100" filter_brightness_hover="100" filter_contrast_hover="100" filter_invert_hover="0" filter_sepia_hover="0" filter_opacity_hover="100" filter_blur_hover="0"]https://staging-morningstarco.kinsta.cloud/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/California-Resevoir-Condition-Map-as-of-July-31-2022-croped-1024x898.jpg[/fusion_imageframe][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type="1_2" layout="1_2" align_self="auto" content_layout="column" align_content="flex-start" content_wrap="wrap" spacing="" center_content="no" link="" target="_self" min_height="" hide_on_mobile="small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility" sticky_display="normal,sticky" class="" id="" type_medium="" type_small="" order_medium="0" order_small="0" dimension_spacing_medium="" dimension_spacing_small="" dimension_spacing="" dimension_margin_medium="" dimension_margin_small="" margin_top="20" margin_bottom="" padding_medium="" padding_small="" padding_top="" padding_right="" padding_bottom="" padding_left="" hover_type="none" border_sizes="" border_color="" border_style="solid" border_radius="" box_shadow="no" dimension_box_shadow="" box_shadow_blur="0" box_shadow_spread="0" box_shadow_color="" box_shadow_style="" background_type="single" gradient_start_color="" gradient_end_color="" gradient_start_position="0" gradient_end_position="100" gradient_type="linear" radial_direction="center center" linear_angle="180" background_color="" background_image="" background_image_id="" background_position="left top" background_repeat="no-repeat" background_blend_mode="none" animation_type="" animation_direction="left" animation_speed="0.3" animation_offset="" filter_type="regular" filter_hue="0" filter_saturation="100" filter_brightness="100" filter_contrast="100" filter_invert="0" filter_sepia="0" filter_opacity="100" filter_blur="0" filter_hue_hover="0" filter_saturation_hover="100" filter_brightness_hover="100" filter_contrast_hover="100" filter_invert_hover="0" filter_sepia_hover="0" filter_opacity_hover="100" filter_blur_hover="0" last="true" border_position="all" first="false" type="1_2"][fusion_text columns="" column_min_width="" column_spacing="" rule_style="default" rule_size="" rule_color="" font_size="" line_height="" letter_spacing="" text_color="" content_alignment_medium="" content_alignment_small="" content_alignment="" animation_type="" animation_direction="left" animation_speed="0.3" animation_offset="" hide_on_mobile="small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility" sticky_display="normal,sticky" class="" id=""]

FIGURE 3 | Source: The Water Agency, Inc.

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2022 CALIFORNIA PRE SEASON TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Water and Weather Outlook Signal Unprecedented Challenges

Processing tomato growers in California might compare 2022 weather so far to a roller coaster, but with none of the accompanying amusement. Promising rainfall in late 2021 brought encouragement to the industry, only to evaporate quickly. As reported by California Secretary of Natural Resources Wade Crowfoot, the first three months of 2022 were the driest in the state’s history. As a result, officials from the State Water Project announced a 15% allocation in January based on supply and projections, only to cut that allocation to 5% by mid-March. And the Central Valley Project south of the Delta will again receive a zero allocation, impacting a vast proportion of acreage in Fresno County – California’s largest processing tomato growing county.

As depicted in Figures 1 and 2 below, drought engulfs the state, driving all reservoirs below historical levels. Shasta, currently at about 50% of 2021 levels, has tremendous impact on the state’s water supply, prompting Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (SRSCs) to reduce water supplied to growers by 75% or more. This is uncharted territory, never imposed since SRSC formation. Many northern acres and multiple crops will have to be fallowed, impacting agriculture, the environment for migratory birds, and people’s livelihoods.

U.S. CA Drought Monitor as of May 17 2022

FIGURE 1 | Source: National Drought Mitigation Center

FIGURE 2 | Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources

Likewise, the Exchange Contractors in the Central Valley are facing supply restrictions and reducing allocations to growers, while adjusting these allocations month to month. Water historically supplied from the Delta under the Exchange Contract may again need to be supplied from the Friant system.

This surface water shortage coincides with early implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, through which agencies have submitted and received feedback to plans from the Department of Water Resources. With these plans to protect groundwater levels, Governor Newsom signed N-7-22 to help mitigate the state’s protracted drought. Well permits have been halted under N-7-22, creating confusion as drilling regulations for each defined region were already addressed in the Sustainable Groundwater Management Plans.

CA Northern Sierra Precipitation: 8-Station Index May 24 2022

Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources

Combined with water shortages, farmers have been faced with fluctuating temperatures and gusty wind conditions that made transplanting young plants difficult. Some fields planted in mid-February were lost to frost in the southern part of the valley. Following record temperatures in the 90’s in March, isolated fields in both northern and southern growing areas were hit with frost, creating minor losses in early April.

Despite far-from-desirable weather conditions, the common theme is that the resiliency of California tomato growers will rise to the top. But complicating the matter are supply chain challenges and increasing costs. With other crops now becoming more attractive in the competition for water, the industry will have to wait until the end of May, when processor intentions are updated for the NASS reports, to see if processing tomatoes have made the cut.

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TOMATO BITES by Morning Star - February 3, 2022 Release

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The questions we all want answers to heading into the 2022 processing tomato year.

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What does 12.2 million tons in 2022 contracts mean for processing tomato supply and demand?
How does the 12.2 million crop and acres relate to history?
Why isn’t a 24% price increase in raw tomatoes getting California more acres when there has been such a substantial jump in price? Surely, 24% moves the needle?

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This month's TOMATO BITES video is more like the WHOLE tomato. The California processing tomato industry is up against some unique challenges, so we’ve changed things up and this time invite you to sit at the table with Morning Star colleagues Aaron Giampietro and Mark De La Mater as they discuss the relevancy and impact of the recent CLFP and USDA NASS reports, as well as highlighting historical trends and anticipated impacts to supply and demand.

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Morning Star Newsletter now distributed electronically

2021 CALIFORNIA POST SEASON CROP UPDATE

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October rains bring hope to California growers, but drought conditions are far from resolving

It’s time to close out another California processing tomato year. The 2021 season started with very dry weather for transplanting, a very hot spring and summer, and concluded with an atmospheric river, making these final weeks of the season slightly challenging. All of those issues contributed to a crop total ending 12% under the January 2021 forecast of 12,100,000 short tons.

While the atmospheric rain event at the end of October may seem hopeful, and does have California heading in the right direction, this one event is not a solution for the drought. The northern reservoirs remain 60% of normal and 30% of capacity and the central reservoirs are averaging slightly better with levels 74.5% of normal and 36% of capacity, as shown in Chart A. To date, the Northern Sierra Precipitation 8-Station Index sits at 15.6 inches, and, as shown in Chart B, is a level higher than the beginning of the 2016-2017 year, which was one of the wettest years for California. However, 2021/2022 precipitation levels will need to reach close to 140% to fill the reservoirs and push California out of it’s drought. It is much too early to hope the drought is behind us, but it is an optimistic start.

With the 2021 crop falling short there will be high demand from all California processors to make up some of this shortfall. This is a challenging task considering a few counties currently have little to no surface water.

Morning Star’s strong team of knowledgeable and experienced colleagues bring confidence and success to growers through ongoing ag research. This ensures growers are implementing the latest technologies and processes, and optimizing cost savings measures whenever possible.

Our focus remains razor sharp as we head into the 2022 season with the goal of fulfilling our customers’ demands.

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California Water Supply Reservoirs - Nov. 11, 2021

CHART A

Northern Sierra Precipitation Index, Nov. 12, 2021

CHART B

TOMATO BITES by Morning Star - August 5, 2021 Release

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CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURE GETS HIT BY STATE WATER BOARD VOTE

An order for an emergency water curtailment for water users in the Sacramento-San Joaquin (Delta) Watershed was unanimously voted on Tuesday, August 3rd, by the State Water Resources Control Board. Colleague Ron Dalforno is here to provide a response.

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