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Water and Weather Outlook Signal Unprecedented Challenges

Processing tomato growers in California might compare 2022 weather so far to a roller coaster, but with none of the accompanying amusement. Promising rainfall in late 2021 brought encouragement to the industry, only to evaporate quickly. As reported by California Secretary of Natural Resources Wade Crowfoot, the first three months of 2022 were the driest in the state’s history. As a result, officials from the State Water Project announced a 15% allocation in January based on supply and projections, only to cut that allocation to 5% by mid-March. And the Central Valley Project south of the Delta will again receive a zero allocation, impacting a vast proportion of acreage in Fresno County – California’s largest processing tomato growing county.

As depicted in Figures 1 and 2 below, drought engulfs the state, driving all reservoirs below historical levels. Shasta, currently at about 50% of 2021 levels, has tremendous impact on the state’s water supply, prompting Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (SRSCs) to reduce water supplied to growers by 75% or more. This is uncharted territory, never imposed since SRSC formation. Many northern acres and multiple crops will have to be fallowed, impacting agriculture, the environment for migratory birds, and people’s livelihoods.

FIGURE 1 | Source: National Drought Mitigation Center

FIGURE 2 | Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources

Likewise, the Exchange Contractors in the Central Valley are facing supply restrictions and reducing allocations to growers, while adjusting these allocations month to month. Water historically supplied from the Delta under the Exchange Contract may again need to be supplied from the Friant system.

This surface water shortage coincides with early implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, through which agencies have submitted and received feedback to plans from the Department of Water Resources. With these plans to protect groundwater levels, Governor Newsom signed N-7-22 to help mitigate the state’s protracted drought. Well permits have been halted under N-7-22, creating confusion as drilling regulations for each defined region were already addressed in the Sustainable Groundwater Management Plans.

Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources

Combined with water shortages, farmers have been faced with fluctuating temperatures and gusty wind conditions that made transplanting young plants difficult. Some fields planted in mid-February were lost to frost in the southern part of the valley. Following record temperatures in the 90’s in March, isolated fields in both northern and southern growing areas were hit with frost, creating minor losses in early April.

Despite far-from-desirable weather conditions, the common theme is that the resiliency of California tomato growers will rise to the top. But complicating the matter are supply chain challenges and increasing costs. With other crops now becoming more attractive in the competition for water, the industry will have to wait until the end of May, when processor intentions are updated for the NASS reports, to see if processing tomatoes have made the cut.

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October rains bring hope to California growers, but drought conditions are far from resolving 

It’s time to close out another California processing tomato year. The 2021 season started with very dry weather for transplanting, a very hot spring and summer, and concluded with an atmospheric river, making these final weeks of the season slightly challenging. All of those issues contributed to a crop total ending 12% under the January 2021 forecast of 12,100,000 short tons.

While the atmospheric rain event at the end of October may seem hopeful, and does have California heading in the right direction, this one event is not a solution for the drought. The northern reservoirs remain 60% of normal and 30% of capacity and the central reservoirs are averaging slightly better with levels 74.5% of normal and 36% of capacity, as shown in Chart A. To date, the Northern Sierra Precipitation 8-Station Index sits at 15.6 inches, and, as shown in Chart B, is a level higher than the beginning of the 2016-2017 year, which was one of the wettest years for California. However, 2021/2022 precipitation levels will need to reach close to 140% to fill the reservoirs and push California out of it’s drought. It is much too early to hope the drought is behind us, but it is an optimistic start.

With the 2021 crop falling short there will be high demand from all California processors to make up some of this shortfall. This is a challenging task considering a few counties currently have little to no surface water.

Morning Star’s strong team of knowledgeable and experienced colleagues bring confidence and success to growers through ongoing ag research. This ensures growers are implementing the latest technologies and processes, and optimizing cost savings measures whenever possible.

Our focus remains razor sharp as we head into the 2022 season with the goal of fulfilling our customers’ demands.

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CHART A

CHART B

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California tomato growers remain resilient in the face of severe drought year

The last weekend in April brought some long-awaited rain and snow to California, but it was too little and too late. Unfortunately, the “D” word is starting to be widely used within California and other western states. As can be seen in Figure 1, a large portion of the Central Valley, our primary processed tomato growing region, currently registers at the Severe Drought stage, though a few counties still remain in the “Moderate” stage.

FIGURE 1

Water allocations are still on hold for the southern federal districts. The small 5% allocation they were given is not yet available for delivery. The State Water Project allocation was reduced, as of March 23^rd, to 5% versus the initial allocation, in December 2020, of 10%. 2021 appears to be a year in which water issues only seem to get worse. On April 15^th,  potential water transfers meant to move water over to the Westside were cancelled. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has elected to curtail Shasta Reservoir releases through spring and mid-summer in order to benefit endangered salmon species. All reservoirs, but one small one in southern California, are below historic levels.

California’s weather heading into our 2021 season has been mixed. We experienced a few isolated freezing temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley after planting began in February, that damaged some fields, as well as seedlings in the greenhouses. There have been days with high winds and high temperatures that halted transplanting in order to prevent damage to the plants. Each year it feels as though we are dealing with ever increasing extremes. Despite the weather problems, most growers are happy with the progress of their tomato fields.

Even with the water situation, California still has an opportunity for a good crop of tomatoes, even though it may fall below the early intentions of 12.1 million tons. Once the growers sorted through the initial cutbacks of water supply, not many acres were dropped. However, there also have not been as many acres added as in the past years, even with a good raw tomato price settled upon.

One tool that quite a few growers have started using in an effort to become more efficient with the limited water is the Gradient Crop Yield Solutions water management program. This program is housed under the Morning Star affiliate California Sun Grower Services. This tool not only provides growers with water scheduling, but also provides real-time monitoring of their field through an internet program (Figure 2). Growers using the system have realized its benefits in cost savings along with improved yields, a better uniform fruit quality, a more even maturity, and less soil compaction at harvest. This is just one of the solutions being worked on by Morning Star’s R&D team to bring efficiency and innovation to its growers.

FIGURE 2 - Gradient Database

On a positive note, dry years in California usually still produce good crops, and it looks like the threat of the curly top virus is not currently an issue. The dry winter curtailed early activity of the sugar beet leafhopper (BLF), the insect responsible for the transmission of the curly top virus. Only a few were found in sweep nets prior to March 31^st, but increased numbers were observed by April 8^th in the Coalinga foothills. By mid-April The Beet Curly Top Virus Control Program (BCTVP) alerted growers of a possible BLF move up into the San Joaquin Valley on or around April 16^th. Fortunately, the BCTVCP was able to obtain permission to conduct aerial treatment on the fields identified with high counts. A total of 6,170 acres were treated in Fresno County.

Finding labor has been a slight challenge and we expect this to continue throughout the year, until some of the COVID-19 relief programs have ended. Field activities carry on and Morning Star continues to recruit additional seasonal labor.

As echoed in past articles, the determination of California tomato growers enables them to cope with the challenges thrown at them whether it be weather, insects, disease, labor, politics, market, environmental issues, or anything else that may arise. California’s resiliency will be a key factor in making 2021 a successful tomato year.

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March may bring a wet month to the California Central Valley.

As we head into 2021, California continues to experience below-average rainfall. It is a far too common occurrence for California’s growers, especially those in Fresno County, which is located in the southern part of the San Joaquin Valley.

Shasta Lake Dam, California

Fresno County grows around 32% (loads inspected) of California’s processed tomatoes, with a good portion lying within the federally owned Westland’s Water District. This district receives its water supply from the Central Valley Water Project, fed by water from the state’s northern reservoirs that currently sit at levels ranging from 54% to 71% of historical averages. The Northern State Precipitation Index also sits at about 53% of average. As the 2021 tomato growing season quickly approaches, Fresno County growers remain skeptical about their water allocations, which could now range from 10% to nothing at all.

As integral as rainfall is to California agriculture, the snowpack is just as significant. The Northern Sierras have had a few snowstorms within the last month; however, snowpack levels remain far below average. March may bring better news as California weather forecasts are pointing towards a wet month.

Mother nature is a fickle beast that growers have been dancing with since man first planted crops. Resilience, persistence, and innovation have kept them moving forward. While another looming drought puts pressure on California groundwater, it is often under these conditions that growers obtain excellent yields on their tomato crop due to less soil compaction, uninterrupted planting in the field resulting in optimum transplant timing, and decreased crop disease typically caused by wet conditions.

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