2024 SUMMER-FALL CALIFORNIA WATER CONDITIONS

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A Year of Water Highs and Lows: California’s 2024 Reservoir Levels and Anticipated La Niña Effects

In 2024, California's weather has presented us with a mixed bag of challenges and triumphs. Winter temperatures and precipitation were slightly above average, but saw mild interruptions in transplanting, while July brought about extreme temperatures—over 100 degrees for more than 50 days in the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys. On a positive note, August saw a further increase in the California State Water Project (SWP) water supply allocation, now up to 40%.

Jones (CVP) Pumping Station

California's major reservoirs (See Figure 1) have seen a significant boost. Currently, their levels range from 95% to 139% of the historical average, which is a testament to the effective management and resilience of our water systems. The State and Federal pumping from the Banks (SWP) and Jones (CVP) pumping stations have been operating near their full capacity, contributing to a restoration of the San Luis Reservoir to 120% of historical values. With a current combined storage of 941,596 Acre Feet, and the Central Valley Project Share at 416,200 Acre Feet, the San Luis Reservoir is well-positioned to support critical agricultural needs, including those of Westland’s Water District, which serves Fresno County—the leading processing tomato growing region in the state.

Looking ahead, however, there are concerns to be mindful of. Forecasts indicate a 66% chance of La Niña conditions developing from September through November, potentially extending into the winter of 2024/2025. La Niña typically brings drier weather patterns to California, which could impact water availability and agricultural productivity. Additionally, California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) restrictions are likely to influence how growers manage their resources and adapt to changing conditions.

Despite these challenges, the tenacity of California growers remains unwavering. Our community has consistently demonstrated its ability to overcome adversity through innovative solutions and determined efforts.

Morning Star will continue to develop our understanding of the future water availability in California and evolve our tomato acquisition strategy to better ensure a sustainable future.

Figure 1 - Source: California Department of Water Resources

PDF Link: CA Res Chart_Sept 8

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As a reminder, Morning Star is now distributing our newsletters electronically using an email distribution vendor called Mailchimp. Your e-version will now include informative Morning Star videos and highlights. Depending on your company's firewall, these emails may initially be directed to you spam folder.

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SPRING WATER CONDITIONS IN CALIFORNIA

Navigating California's Water Landscape: Rainfall, Reservoirs, and Allocations

California has received a substantial amount of rainfall, with 96% of the average in the northern watershed and 88% in the San Joaquin watershed for the 2024 crop year. The reservoirs in northern California are currently at 117% of the historical average, and the central reservoirs are at an impressive 120% of the average (see Figure 1). Despite these favorable conditions, the federal water allocation south of the Delta is only at 40%, as is the state allocation. While there will be ample water to support the NASS January intentions forecast of 232 thousand acres for California processing tomatoes, this situation leaves farmers in these state and federal project zones wondering what it takes to secure a more favorable allocation.

Since October 2023, approximately 16.5 million gallons have flowed through the Delta. However, only about 2 million gallons have been pumped south for use by state and federal projects, with pumping curtailed due to environmental restrictions.

On a positive note, the Department of Water Resources has released a report indicating an increase in groundwater storage for the first time since 2019. For the 2023 water year, this improvement is partly due to managed groundwater recharge and reduced pumping. This milestone coincides with the first time the groundwater sustainability plan Annual Report data was released by local groundwater sustainability agencies across 99 groundwater basins, accounting for 90% of groundwater use in the state. This reporting stems from the historic Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), established in 2014 to protect California's invaluable groundwater resources.

Morning Star's proactive approach to understanding future water availability in California has evolved our tomato acquisition strategy. As the landscape of water resources shifts, driven by evolving urban needs, environmental concerns, and industrial demands, we are strategically positioning ourselves to thrive amidst these changes. Our commitment is to source from regions with assured water quality and supply not just today, but also in the years to come.

FIGURE 1 | Source: CA Department of Water Resources

PDF Link: CA Res Chart_May 22

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TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – March 2024 Release

Spring Planting Underway - Morning Star's Insight on Tomato Crop and Water Allocations

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. Amidst California's favorable weather and robust water storage, transplant operations are flourishing, yet state forecasted water supply allocations remain low, and crop price negotiations continue between the tomato processors and the California Tomato Growers Association. Morning Star's commitment to supply chain resilience continues to evolve to ensure stability and confidence for customers.

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2023 POST SEASON CALIFORNIA TOMATO CROP UPDATE

Navigating California’s 2024 Tomato Crop with Caution and Optimism

Processing tomato crops flourished this season thanks to California's exceptional summer and fall growing conditions. Inventory levels have been buffered, and a respectable carryover stock is anticipated for 2024. However, the sunny skies and minimal to no rainfall that facilitated processing until early November have extended into December. While the dry conditions allowed for successful fall ground preparation, California growers, with the holidays approaching, are hopeful for abundant rainfall and snow.

With carryover stocks back in balance, the urgent need to begin transplanting as soon as possible has finally eased. Waiting until late February or early March will provide optimal conditions for the young plants emerging from the greenhouses.

Click to access the CA Department of Water Resources Map

Currently, California's northern and central reservoirs are at around 120% of historical levels and are at approximately 65% of capacity. While this is a positive starting point for 2024, initial California State Water Project (SWP) allocations, as of December 1, stand at only 10% due to minimal precipitation. The Central Valley Project’s (CVP) water allocations are still pending. As the days pass, California's growers eagerly await the anticipated El Niño conditions promising another wet winter.

A primary concern for California's growers is the 2024 tomato contracts. After wrapping up the 2023 crop year with 12.738 million short tons, California's processors are looking towards 2024 with plans for a slightly lower tonnage, yet focusing on keeping factory run rates efficiently high. This presents a challenging situation for the state's growers since many crops in competition with tomatoes, as well as most permanent crops, have faced depressed prices and demand, contributing to a growing interest in tomato contracts despite reduced pricing.

Additional reasons for gratitude and optimism include the minimal damage tomato crops experienced in 2023 from the curly top virus. The Beet Curly Top Virus program has enhanced its state scouting capabilities and research. The wet conditions during the 2023 grower season played a crucial role in minimizing damage from the virus. Furthermore, advancements in tomato genetics continue to improve varieties, resulting in optimal tomatoes for growing and processing with enhanced disease resistance.

A new state-sponsored agency will become active after the first of the year, addressing the broomrape situation in parts of Northern California. This agency will be tasked with forming a strategic plan and mission on how to deal with this menacing parasitic weed. Other countries have taken a strong proactive approach to preventing its spread and have seen great results.

As California's tomato industry navigates the challenges of fluctuating water allocations and reduced contract intentions, the state's growers and processors remain cautiously optimistic. With promising reservoir levels, the industry is poised for success in 2024, provided the anticipated El Niño conditions bring the much-needed rainfall for a prosperous growing season ahead.

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MORNING STAR 2022 PROCESSING TOMATO POST-SEASON UPDATE

Morning Star’s 2022 processing tomato season concluded just a few days ago, offering a glimpse into the final tonnage number for California processing tomatoes. In this post-season video, colleague Aaron Giampietro is back to discuss final expected tonnage and provide context to understand these results and offer a few insights to watch as we head toward the 2023 crop cycle. We hope you enjoy, and should you ever have any questions, please reach out to a Morning Star colleague.

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CALIFORNIA WATER PROJECTS ON THE HORIZON

Promising solutions surface for State water challenges

On the horizon are two proposed projects that have the potential to improve California’s water supply. The first is the building of Sites Reservoir, proposed for the west side of the Sacramento Valley, spanning Glenn and Colusa Counties. Second is the Delta Conveyance Project, which proposes a fresh strategy for moving water supplies across the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.

The Sites Reservoir would not rely on snowmelt, instead capturing winter runoff from uncontrolled streams below existing Sacramento Valley reservoirs. With climate change patterns that are producing less snow and heavier rainfall, this reservoir would offer the benefit of capturing runoff from these extreme events.

Graphic: The Morning Star Company | Source: Sites Authority, CA Dept. of Water Resources

Unlike past reservoir projects built by damming across natural flowing rivers to retain water, Sites Reservoir will in no way dam or impede any river or streambed but will actually provide dramatic benefits to the ecosystem. Runoff from streams would be stored in the new reservoir, then moved to support groundwater recharge projects and aid in groundwater sustainability. Utilizing stored water from Sites Reservoir for agriculture and Delta water quality improvement would also preserve cold water pools in Shasta and Oroville, aiding the late summer and fall salmon run.

Operating in conjunction with other California reservoirs, Sites Reservoir proposes to substantially increase water supply flexibility, reliability, and resiliency in drier years. In fact, Sites Reservoir would increase Northern California’s water storage capacity by up to 15 percent. This would support statewide operations of both the State Water Project and the Central Valley Project.

As its name suggests, the Delta Conveyance Project proposes to focus on a more efficient and sustainable means of transferring water across the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Its route would run to the east of the Delta, rather than going through the heart of it, largely following major roads like I-5, to reduce major construction activities in rural landscapes.

Traditional intakes would be modified in the project to minimize visual and audible impacts on the surrounding ecosystem, utilizing a single tunnel and eliminating a forebay that runs about half the length of the existing route to preserve hundreds of acres of Delta farmland. Underground lines would provide the primary power source, with minimal use of existing external power poles, decreasing the collision threat to many birds traveling along the Pacific Flyway that make the Delta their home for part of the year. And finally, to reduce impact on the estuary’s natural flow pattern, operational improvements propose that the two new intakes in the Northern Delta would only be used when the same water could not be captured with the existing system during winter and spring.

Both projects are pending final decisions, but the upcoming release of Draft Environmental Impact Reports will create an opportunity for public comment and provide the projects with new perspectives.

Sources: Sites Reservoir Authority and California Dept. of Water Resources

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