2024 SEASON GLOBAL TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Global Production Estimates Stable Amid Heat Waves

On September 6, the World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC) released an update on expected volumes throughout the world. In June, the WPTC reported global production to be a record 52.1 million short tons and have since slightly revised this number to 50.9 million short tons. This reduction is largely driven by Iran, which decreased their estimate by approximately 35% from 2.1 million tons to 1.55 million tons due to very high temperatures in the southern part of the country. Some temperatures have reportedly reached 113 degrees Fahrenheit, which has impacted yield and quality. Last year, Iran processed 2.2 million short tons of tomatoes, which made up 4.5% of total world production and they were the sixth highest producing country.

Iran decreasing estimates due to excessive heat is a trend that will likely continue throughout the world, as other major producing countries—California (USA), China, Spain, Turkey, and Portugal—have all reported similar prolonged heat waves. Spain, Turkey, and Portugal have not revised their estimates and are still projected to process that same volumes that were reported in June. The USDA NASS released an updated 2024 Processing Tomato Production report on August 29^th, where they dropped California’s forecasted tons by 1.8% from 11.5 million short tons to 11.3 million short tons. Of course, this drop in forecasted California production is not very significant and the industry will be watching closely if California or any other major producing countries drop their forecasted tonnage by anymore.

The story of the year has been China’s forecasted increase in production for the 2024 season. In 2022, China processed 6.8 million short tons of tomatoes and increased this to 8.8 million short tons in 2023. In February, China reported increasing production to 12.1 million short tons, but have since revised production estimates to 11.5 million short tons or a 5% decrease from their February projection. Still, this is a projected 69% increase in production from 2022 levels. In our next Newsletter, we will follow up in more detail regarding 2024 world tomato production.

Source: World Processing Tomato Council

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2024 PRE SEASON GLOBAL TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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2024 Global Production Expected to Hit 47.5 Million mT

The World Processing Tomato Council reported that, as of May 17, projections for the 2024 crop should exceed 2023’s production of 44.2 million mT. With China and California expecting crops of 10.5 and 11 million mT respectively, the accuracy of those projections could impact the final production for 2024. Other notable regions with significant output are Italy with 5.6 million mT, Spain with 2.8 million mT, Turkey with 2.7 million mT, and Iran with 1.9 million mT. Planting has now officially begun in the Northern Hemisphere; however, rain and adverse weather in Europe have caused some significant delays.

Smaller production regions are being affected heavily by those adverse weather effects. For example, rain, wind, and highly variable temperatures have delayed planting in France, with only 50% of total surface areas planted. The country expects delayed harvesting, likely not starting until early August, and expects 190,000 mT in 2024. On the other hand, Greece has enjoyed a warm spring which allowed for early planting. With 80-85% of surfaces planted, they are expecting 500,000 mT.

Larger regions of production, such as Italy, have struggled with rain delays to planting. Approximately 50-55% of surfaces have been planted in the Northern region. Rainfall and low spring temperatures have hindered plant growth, and Italy now faces harvesting delays of 1 or 2 weeks. The South has benefitted from lighter rain, but water availability remains a challenge in Puglia. The final forecast is 5.6 million mT.

Similar to Italy, Portugal has had unpredictable weather and rain. Transplanting was delayed in March due to wind and rain, but approximately 55% of surfaces have now been planted. Their forecast remains at 1.5 million mT.

In keeping with the trend, Spain has also had delays in transplanting (10-15 days) due to rain. Expectations are for planting to be complete by the end of May in Extremadura. The Andalucia region was delayed as well but not to the same extent as Extremadura. The total forecast is still 2.8 million mT.

Turkey has enjoyed nice weather, similar to Greece, and expects to begin an early start to harvesting. They are expecting 2.7 million mT.

Despite ongoing conflict in the country, planting in Ukraine has been steady, with 45% of tomatoes going into their growing region. Some low temperatures and frost have slowed the growth in field seedlings, but Ukraine’s forecast is still 600,000 tonnes.

Taking a look at the Southern Hemisphere, where harvesting is coming to a close, we are seeing Brazil face some major plant health and weather challenges. Extreme temperatures in the early season caused whitefly, a virus-transmitting agent from soybean crops, to attack early transplanted tomato crops, damaging some crops beyond repair. The amount of rain in March, coupled with high temperatures, delayed significant transplanting, causing producers to lose seedlings in nurseries. Despite the setbacks, yields are overall expected to have improved from 2023, and Brazil expects to return to 2022 volumes of 1.7 million mT.

As with every processing season, weather and disease play a crucial role in crop health at this time of year. As major regions such as China, California, Italy, and Spain are wrapping up their planting season, we should know more in the coming month, particularly after the WPTC congress in early June, about how reliable and accurate current crop projections are.

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2023 POST SEASON GLOBAL TOMATO CROP UPDATE

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Global Production Exceeds Expectations. Processors Around the World Produce 44.2 Million mT.

Despite the inevitable challenges of rain, heat, disease, and political conflicts, the global tomato industry managed to outpace the initial forecast of 42.7 million mT by 1.5 million mT, representing a 5.8 million mT increase from the 2022 crop. Outside of California’s 11.5 million mT, Italy and China represented the largest production regions in 2022. Despite record prices for raw product, global production was not slowed in 2023.

Source:WPTC/Tomato News

Italy’s production wrapped up its season with 5.4 million mT, nearly on par with 2022 levels. Like California, Italy was challenged with an extended processing period, pushing production into November. Production costs represent a significant challenge for the season and look to be a continuing stressor in the future. Extreme weather, which forced factory shutdowns, occurred more than in recent years. Italy was able to process 2.8 million mT in the North and 2.6 million mT in the Central and Southern regions. While surfaces planted had increased by 5% in the Central and Southern regions, production was on par with 2022 levels due to yield reductions.

Total processing volume in China reached 8 million mT, with their season being pushed a week longer than usual. Early forecasts of 7.3 million mT, already an increase from 2022’s 6.2 million mT, were exceeded by 700,000 mT. 4.78 million mT were processed in Northern Xinjiang, 1.6 million mT in Southern Xinjiang, 0.08 million mT in Gansu and Ningxia, and 1.51 million mT in Inner Mongolia. China employed 10 more factories in 2023, with total processing facilities reaching 100. Processing capacity was increased by 20% compared to 2022. China was not free of challenges; however, with surprising snowfall in the spring, extreme heat in early plant development, decreased yields, and extended transportation distances plaguing their 2023 season. China also had to contend with increased costs of raw material and production costs. Demand for raw material saw an increase in 2023, driving costs higher than 2022.

Portugal concluded its season with 1.5 million mT. Crops were challenged with low yields early in the season and heat, frost, and rain during the season. Turkey experienced a long season, with final production at 2.7 million mT, on par with their initial forecast. Ukraine, despite the conflict in regions throughout the country, produced 500,000 mT. France reduced its production slightly and finished with volumes of almost 160,000. Greece suffered from rain and floods, reducing their volume by 15% to 390,000 mT.

Spain expected to produce 2.7 million mT but was challenged by rain during harvesting in September, leading to lower yields. Production was 2.6 million mT. Extremadura experienced a long season, as did most of the global processing regions, ending on October 10th. Andalusia suffered from reduced access to water, reducing surfaces harvested. Increased temperatures contributed to its reduction in production.

The global processing environment for 2024 is expected to continue experiencing rises in production costs. 2023 raw material costs were 40% higher than 2022 prices, which were already a record level for raw material in its own right (2022 had a 60% higher than the average price from 2020 to 2022). Processors around the world will have to contend with these astronomical increases in production costs, as raw tomatoes represent the majority of input costs to the processors. The Director of ANICAV (the National Association of Industrial Vegetable Food Preserves), Giovanni De Angelis, says, “Finding an agreement on the average reference price of the raw material is increasingly difficult. A new supply chain relationship is necessary and we will discuss it during the next public meeting of the ANICAV, Il Filo Rosso del Pomodoro, scheduled for November 24th.” The outcome of that meeting and any resolutions have yet to be published, but we expect this conversation around raw material prices to be at the forefront of processors' minds around the world, from California to China to Italy and beyond.

Source:WPTC/Tomato News

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2023 SEASON GLOBAL TOMATO CROP UPDATE

WPTC Expects Predictions To Be Accurate at 42 Million mT

After significant delays around the world to the start of the season, global processors are now well into the 2023 crop, with many countries nearing the end of their season. Weather presented many challenges, from flooding in Greece to heat waves in Egypt. Despite the delays, the World Processing Tomato Council continues to support the pre-season production figure of 42.271 million mT.

Source: World Processing Tomato Council

France has processed 143,000 mT as of September 29. Their early season was delayed as issues with late blight and fruit flies caused problems followed by lower than expected temperatures. Harvest is expected to conclude in the next 7-10 days, finishing with 155,000 mT compared to the 163,000 mT contracted.

Northern Italy has reduced its expected crop to 5.4 million mT, down from 5.5 million mT. After suffering from extreme temperatures and a two-week heatwave, the beginning of September saw a halt in production for a few days due to dropped temperatures and significant rain. Southern Italy was impacted similarly, with processing stopping due to rain. The overall quantity of tomatoes harvested suffered primarily because of the rain. Yields were heavily impacted by the early season rains, hail in July, and then a heatwave in mid-July, particularly in the South. At the end of September, over 80% of the contracted volumes had been harvested but with many crops not yet matured, they will likely be processing into October to allow the tomatoes to ripen.

Spain, similar to Italy, saw delays due to rain. While their forecasts remain the same at 2.6 million mT, the WPTC expects volumes to be slightly reduced. A late heatwave in Extremadura caused yields to suffer as well. Andalusia had expected to be finished with production by mid-September; however, factories were still running due to the delayed start of harvest.

Source: World Processing Tomato Council

Turkey is another area where harvesting started unusually late, delaying their season by approximately two weeks. Despite the challenges, Turkey raised its forecast from 2.6 million mT to 2.7 million mT and should wrap up its processing season October 7th or 8th.

Greece’s floods impacted their 2023 tomato season more than initially expected and they have reduced their forecast to 390,000 mT. Still facing rain at this point in the year, they are forced to process at lower capacities. While factories were not damaged in the floods, some crops were affected but they are expected to not sustain long-term damage. With all the fields in the Centre area of Thessalia suffering, many of those crops became impossible to harvest, forcing Greece to be unable to make their 430,000 forecast.

China has not yet officially published updates to their processing season, but their estimate of 7.3 million mT currently remains unchanged. Following the May snow in Xinjiang, efforts to replant tomatoes may not have been successful due to late timing. Cooler weather has affected tomato maturation and created a hyper competitive environment for raw tomatoes among Chinese processors for what is likely to be a lighter crop. If realized, the effect on the market will be substantial as China Customs recently released figures regarding their expected exports, hitting a record 1.114 million mT thus surpassing the previous 2011/2012 record of 1.169 million mT.

With some countries yet to finish their 2023 season, and witnessing processing into October, we do not yet know what the final figure will be, or if it will meet the expectation of 42.3 million mT. With the challenges processors have faced around the world, it stands to reason that the global market may fall short of that number.

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2023 PRE-SEASON GLOBAL TOMATO CROP UPDATE

WPTC Reports Increased Expected Volumes for 2023 Season

Source: World Processing Tomato Council

The World Processing Tomato Council, at the end of March, expects the global market to produce 42.758 million mT in 2023. This signifies a 4.770 million mT increase from 2022’s production of 37.988 million mT. Countries are currently in the planting stage of the season; therefore, better estimates will be available in June.

California and China production estimates account for 55% of the expected growth, adding 1.912 million mT and 1.213 million mT respectively. Other countries making notable increases in production estimates are Turkey, Brazil, and Ukraine. Turkey estimates 2.6 million mT, as their inventory of tomato products are waning and farmers have indicated a strong desire to plant tomatoes. Brazil increased planting surfaces by 9% and is expecting 1.99 million mT, signaling an estimated 22% increase from their 1.63 million mT in 2022.

Ukraine estimates 500,000 to 600,000 mT of tomatoes to be processed, with processors optimistic about their ability to plant despite the turmoil in the region. In the Mykolaiv region, a total of 240,000 hectares of land must be demined, with 19,000 of those hectares owned by Inagro, the largest processor. One of Inagro’s factories is in territory occupied by Russia and the other two have sustained damage, including 16,000 tonnes of paste having been destroyed. Transplanting started at the end of April.

Source: World Processing Tomato Council

Italy has planned an increase of 8% in surfaces, increasing their numbers in the South from 2.59 million mT to 2.8 million mT. Currently, planting in the South has been delayed due to cold weather and rain. The North expects to be on par with 2022 surfaces, despite weather causing damage due to frost, rain storms, and hail. Approximately 30% of the surfaces have been planted but weather is causing slower plant development.

Italian farmers are negotiating a price increase for raw tomatoes, with processors offering 130 euros/tonne and farmers asking for 155 euros/tonne. This price increase is unprecedented, with 2022 prices being 109.5/tonne which already was an 18% annual increase and a 40% increase over four years.

Spain estimates 2.6 million mT with planting underway in both Andalusia and Extremadura. With no significant weather delays, the regions are enjoying warm temperatures; however, with warm temperatures comes the drying of the fields and water allocations have been reduced. Water allocation is only at 60%, but it is an increase from 2022. Planting is scheduled to be finished in mid-May in Andalusia and end of May in Extremadura. Like Italy, Spain is facing high prices, the most recent price published in March was 150 euros/tonne.

China’s forecast remained steady at 7.3 million mT. While the estimate is based on seed sales, we do not yet know surfaces planted or the price of tomatoes in the region. In the first week of May, a dramatic snow event hit most of the Xinjiang growing region, where one third of the tomato crop had already been planted. The extent of the damage is not yet known, but will likely result in a significant reduction in Chinese processing tomato volumes.

Australia planted 1,503 hectares this season; however, some fields were lost to flooding. Significant rains caused delays and, compounded by the floods, could make for a very tough season. It is estimated that up to 1,000 hectares of ground have not yet been planted. Variable weather, from cool to hot, caused plants to slow in their growth. Episodes of hail also hit the region, decreasing yields and delaying growth.

As always, the beginning of the season is characterized by tomato price negotiations, inclement weather challenges, and water allocation restrictions. Overall, we expect to see some increase in the total amount of tomato paste processed this year versus 2022. With snow in China, flooding in California and drought in Spain, much of the planned increases will likely be muted and unable to make a meaningful surplus towards balancing inventories.

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2022 SEASON GLOBAL TOMATO CROP UPDATE

World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC) Forecasts 6.1% Reduction from Initial Production Intentions

Compared to 2021 production at 39.2 million mT, global production is estimated to be roughly 5% lower, finishing at 37.3 million mT. Decreases globally can be attributed to such significant factors such as water availability, land availability, and weather disturbances.

Evolution and Distribution of Global Processing 2022 | Source: Tomato News

In France, for example, the tomato growing season was the shortest in recent memory. The region processed only 142,000 tonnes, 87% of their contracted production. The southwest region experienced a good year, while heat waves affected yields in the southeast, which were down 17% at 70 tonnes/hectare.

Greece experienced heavy competition from alternative crops, resulting in 340,000 tonnes processed, a significant reduction from their original intention of 420,000 tonnes.

Still running at the end of October, production in Italy was at 5.48 million mT, a 10% reduction from 2021. With 65,180 hectares planted (37,024 in the north and 28,156 in the south), Italy was not expected to reach its record 2021 crop levels this season. Drought and high temperatures in the north caused early harvesting troubles, but late-season rains helped to improve the final overall crop production of 2.885 million mT, exceeding their initial forecast. Yields of 78 tonnes/hectare were higher than their five-year average. In the south, producers processed 2.59 million mT, a slight reduction from their 2.65 million mT projection and an overall 12% decrease from 2021.

Portugal faced heat and rain challenges, with a total of 1.33 million mT produced, a reduction from the 1.45 million mT expected. Brix levels were also impacted by September rain.

Ukraine faced significant challenges this season, with Odesa becoming their primary growing and processing region since the war has impacted the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Production concluded the first week of November, with a projected total of 120,000 tonnes produced, a dramatic decrease compared to their 2020 and 2021 season totals of 800,000 tonnes.

Russia processed 638,000 mT, an increase from their 600,000 mT forecast. With demand significantly exceeding supply, Russian producers are struggling to navigate production amidst global sanctions facing their country. These sanctions and their impact on businesses are expected to continue and worsen for next year’s crop.

Source: Tomato News

Spain struggled with production this year, primarily due to water availability. The lack of water initially impacted their planting season, with heat in July exceeding 40°C. A few rainstorms in September caused some production facilities to pause operations. Water availability had already reduced original forecasts by 25% from 2021 levels to 2.5 million mT, but the persistent issue forced a further reduction to 33% of 2021 levels, to 2.1 million mT. Yields were down to 85 tonnes/hectare this season compared to 95 tonnes/hectare in 2021.

Turkey struggled with competing crops, notably cotton. While surface planting in the south was reduced because of the competition, other regions were able to increase their surface planting. Overall, Turkey exceeded their 2.1 million mT expectations and finished with a production of 2.35 million mT.

China originally estimated 5.8 million mT, while total processing volumes reached 6.2 million mT at the end of their processing season. With no organic production, conventional production totaled 3.68 million mT in Northern Xinjiang, 0.06 million mT in Gansu, and 1.1 million mT in Inner Mongolia. Yields were positive at 110-155 tonnes/hectare. China faces an increase in raw tomatoes, with prices now at $78/ton, 21% higher than the average of the last three years.

2022 Global Tomato Production, by Region

Source: Tomato News

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