TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – September 2024 Release

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Revised Estimates: What the Latest NASS Data Means for California Tomatoes.

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. This edition covers the USDA NASS report, which revises California's processing tomato estimate to 11.3 million paid short tons, down from 11.6 million. Key points include projected field yields, acreage changes, and the impact of the July heatwave on quality.

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TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – June 2024 Release

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June Tomato Forecast: USDA NASS and Industry Highlights

Join Aaron Giampietro as he dives into the USDA NASS's latest processing tomato report, revealing key insights and forecast adjustments. Discover how California's farmers are boosting groundwater replenishment, the latest on contract pricing for conventional and organic tomatoes, and how shifts in energy dynamics are impacting the industry.

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Rooted in Growth: Kicking Off 2024 with Morning Star

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At Morning Star, the first pages of the calendar are filled with growth, from the green leaves of our young plants to the fresh ideas sparked at our annual meeting. Join James Sherwood and the Morning Star team in our February video as we step into our greenhouses and meeting rooms, laying the groundwork for a year of abundant harvests and shared achievements.

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TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – September 7 2023 Release

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California Tomato Harvest Update: Paving the Way to 12.9 Million Tons.

Morning Star colleague James Sherwood brings you another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. This release delves into the the August USDA California Tomato Processing Report, which reveals a significant forecast increase in paid short tons to 12.9 million tons, surpassing expectations with a 4% rise from January’s report. Despite facing a slow start, the California processing tomato industry is making strides toward its harvest goal, showing promise for bolstering inventories and ensuring a reliable supply for domestic and global markets.

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MAY USDA NASS REPORT ANALYSIS BY MORNING STAR

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Morning Star takes a deeper dive into the May 2023 USDA NASS report.

The Morning Star Packing Company is committed to unraveling the intricacies of the agricultural industry through a data-driven lens. Following our June 2 TOMATO BITES video update, which delved into the USDA's revised processing tomato contract intentions and the extraordinary developments in California's transplanting season, we are now presenting an even deeper layer of analysis.

Based on previous May NASS reports, we can estimate the 2023 paid short tons processed by comparing the anticipated 2023 harvested acres to the actual tons per acre harvested yield from 2014 to 2022.

The NASS report provides information on two types of acreage: planted and harvested. Usually, around 1.95% of planted acres are lost due to weather-related issues before reaching the harvest stage.

For 2023 crop, continued transplanting into mid-June makes corresponding forecasted harvest run through to the end of October. This leads to a similar situation as 2022 crop, wherein 6,000 less acres were harvested than planted. If we apply the 6,000 acre deduct to the current May contracted acres, we can estimate that 248,000 acres will likely be harvested. Forecasts for harvested tons in October continue to remain at risk for lower yield and quality due to shorter, cooler days and the onset of El Nino conditions in the fall, which typically brings wet weather to California.

To calculate the ton per acre yield, we divide the actual production tons in a given year by the actual harvested acres. We then multiplied each of these actual crop year yields by the 248,000 harvest acres forecast. Finally, we multiplied the 2023 acres by the nine-year weighted average of the dataset.

Using the 2014-2022 weighted average tons per acre multiplied by our forecasted 248,000 acres would produce a 12.07 million paid short ton crop. The 2018 crop yield creates the highest tonnage forecast of 12.91 million paid short tons and 2022 crop creates the lowest volume forecast of 11.57 million paid short tons.

It's worth noting that the 2023 crop at 12.70 million paid short tons would require the second highest crop tons per acre yield behind the record 2018 tons per acre yield.

We hope this information provides you with valuable insights into the expected crop performance in 2023. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to your sales colleague.

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Check out our latest TOMATO BITES by Morning Star video.

TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – June 2, 2023 Release

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Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. This release focuses on the latest findings of the May 2023 USDA National Agriculture Statistic Services report, which reveals an anticipated increase in planted acres compared to January's statistics. Due to a wet winter and spring in the state, water allocations reached 100%. However, this also resulted in consistent fluctuations in tomato transplant schedules. With transplanting approaching completion and a long season ahead of us, Morning Star will remain highly focused on yields.

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We invite you to access a special release article that provides a deeper level of context to the May 31 USDA NASS California Processing Tomato report.

READ ARTICLE

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filter_opacity="100" filter_blur="0" filter_hue_hover="0" filter_saturation_hover="100" filter_brightness_hover="100" filter_contrast_hover="100" filter_invert_hover="0" filter_sepia_hover="0" filter_opacity_hover="100" filter_blur_hover="0"]https://staging-morningstarco.kinsta.cloud/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Mailbox-and-Phone.png[/fusion_imageframe][/fusion_builder_column_inner][/fusion_builder_row_inner][fusion_text columns="" column_min_width="" column_spacing="" rule_style="default" rule_size="" rule_color="" hide_on_mobile="small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility" class="" id="disclaimer" animation_type="" animation_direction="left" animation_speed="0.3" animation_offset=""]

Morning Star Newsletter now distributed electronically

TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – September 6 Release

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Colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update to discuss and bring context to the recent August USDA NASS report that updated expected California paid short tons at 10.5 million tons, a 14% decrease from January’s estimates of 12.2 million tons.

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TOMATO BITES by Morning Star – May 31 2022 Release

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Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another Tomato Bites by Morning Star update. In this release, he addresses the recent May 2022 USDA National Agriculture Statistic Services report and the current state of many California crops experiencing similar challenges as they head into 2022.

In light of these challenges, Morning Star sees a path to 2023 by way of prudent planning and cooperation with our ingredient customers, and we encourage you to reach out to discuss these current events in more detail.

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Morning Star Newsletter now distributed electronically

TOMATO BITES by Morning Star - February 3, 2022 Release

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The questions we all want answers to heading into the 2022 processing tomato year.

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What does 12.2 million tons in 2022 contracts mean for processing tomato supply and demand?
How does the 12.2 million crop and acres relate to history?
Why isn’t a 24% price increase in raw tomatoes getting California more acres when there has been such a substantial jump in price? Surely, 24% moves the needle?

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This month's TOMATO BITES video is more like the WHOLE tomato. The California processing tomato industry is up against some unique challenges, so we’ve changed things up and this time invite you to sit at the table with Morning Star colleagues Aaron Giampietro and Mark De La Mater as they discuss the relevancy and impact of the recent CLFP and USDA NASS reports, as well as highlighting historical trends and anticipated impacts to supply and demand.

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Morning Star Newsletter now distributed electronically

TOMATO BITES by Morning Star - September 1, 2021 Release

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THE LATEST AUGUST USDA NASS REPORT SHOWS INTENTIONS FOR 11.1 MILLION SHORT TONS

The USDA NASS August report is out, and Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is here to discuss what the newly reported intentions mean for the California processing tomato industry.

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